Ontario has prioritized investments in postsecondary education (PSE) to strengthen its workforce, particularly through funding to expand enrollments in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and health fields and by directing international student study permits to high-priority STEM programs (Government of Ontario, 2022; Ministry of Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security [MCURES], 2024, 2025a, 2025b; Ministry of Finance, 2021, 2023; Office of the Premier, 2022). Government investments have contributed to a steady increase in STEM applicants and graduates in recent years (MCURES, 2025b; Statistics Canada, 2024c). However, questions remain about whether these graduates stay in the province to contribute to its economy and help fill labour market gaps (Gray, 1999; Hemmadi, 2025; Zhao et al., 2000).
Research shows that most postsecondary graduates who study in Canada remain in the province where they studied, especially if it’s their home province (Brunet et al., 2025; Choi et al., 2021; Frenette & Handler, 2024; Narh, & Buzzelli, 2022; Statistics Canada, 2025a). The small share that moves to another province after graduating typically do so for better job prospects and earnings (Usher et al., 2014). Outflows to other provinces are not uniform across all graduates. Studies indicate that STEM graduates are generally more mobile within Canada than business, humanities, health, arts, social science and education (BHASE) graduates, as are university graduates, international graduates and graduates with advanced credentials (Brunet et al., 2025; Choi et al., 2021; Statistics Canada, 2025a). Mobility is also shaped by a graduate’s personal characteristics. Graduates who are younger, male and originally from outside their province of study are less likely to remain in their study province after completing their programs (Brunet et al., 2025; Choi et al., 2021; Sangmen, 2024; Statistics Canada, 2025a).
Among Ontario graduates, retention patterns broadly reflect the Canadian interprovincial trends described above, but the evidence base is more limited, with fewer studies and a narrower range of program and personal characteristics examined (Choi et al., 2021; Statistics Canada, 2025a). Focusing on Ontario STEM graduates specifically, research shows that a larger share moves to another province after graduation compared with BHASE graduates (Choi et al., 2021; Statistics Canada, 2025a ). A recent Statistics Canada report focused on bachelor’s degree graduates showed that more domestic BHASE degree graduates remain in Ontario than their STEM peers, but this difference has narrowed over time (Statistics Canada, 2025a). In 2012, 93% of BHASE bachelor’s degree graduates remained in the province one year after graduation compared with 89% of those in STEM. By 2021, retention had risen to 92% for STEM graduates and remained at 93% for BHASE graduates. Overall, Ontario retains the vast majority of its bachelor’s degree graduates from both STEM and BHASE fields of study (Statistics Canada, 2025a).
While interprovincial mobility research provides useful context, evidence on provincial retention among Ontario graduates, particularly those with non-degree credentials, is limited. This study uses linked administrative data to examine where Ontario postsecondary domestic and international graduates who completed their first certificate, diploma, advanced diploma or bachelor’s degree between 2015 and 2020 live in Canada 2 years after graduation. The findings provide evidence to inform provincial retention strategies.