Graduates’ Unmet Labour Market Expectations Reflect Unequal Realities

Authors: Ken Chatoor, Hagar Effah and Elizabeth Agoe

The transition from postsecondary (PSE) to work is an exciting and important milestone that can also be challenging. In Ontario, the existing data infrastructure around PSE outcomes relies on provincial government key performance indicators and graduate surveys that measure students’ employment and graduate outcomes (Government of Ontario, 2024). Government and institutions, as well as students and their families, are interested in these high-level outcomes, but they do not tell the whole story when it comes to understanding the labour market outcomes of PSE grads. The gap between expectations and reality of post-graduation outcomes is significant for historically marginalized and equity deserving graduates.

In Summer 2023, HEQCO surveyed recent bachelor’s degree graduates from Ontario universities to explore whether their expectations matched the realities of career planning, getting their first job, wages and job quality. We also gathered data about key identity characteristics such as ethnicity, family income, immigration status, disability status, sexual orientation and first-generation status.

Our findings show that while overall graduate outcomes were positive, respondents’ expectations and experience did not always match and there were notable differences by identity characteristics. The resulting ‘expectations gap’ reveals a disconnect between what some grads expect from their first job and the realities they face during their first post-graduate forays into the labour market — a gap that is most pronounced among our equity-deserving respondents.

Some of the most dramatic examples of the expectations gap reveal themselves in our analysis of earnings, presented in Table 1. Survey respondents from low-income backgrounds (85%), graduates with disabilities (70%) and LGBTQIA2+ (56%) were more likely to report earning less than $50,000, while their peers from other identity groups earned on average between $50,000 and $75,000 in their first job.

LGBTQIA2+ graduates and graduates with disabilities not only earned less than their counterparts, but they also earned less than their already lowered expectations. Forty-eight percent of graduates with disabilities expected to earn less than $50,000 in their first job, but in fact 70% earned less than $50,000. This means that at least 22% of graduates with disabilities earned less than the already lower-than-average wage they expected. There is a smaller but significant gap between expectations and experience among LGBTQIA2+ graduates as well: 46% expected to earn less than $50,000 in their first job but 56% reported that they earned less than $50,000.

In addition to unmet wage expectations, the data reveal gaps by identity characteristics around general job quality and overall satisfaction. We asked, “Did your first job after graduating meet your expectations?” and prompted respondents to consider quality of work, compensation, skills requirements and flexibility in their answers. Half of respondents (50%) reported that their overall expectations were not met, but those with disabilities (83%) and those identifying as LGBTQIA2+ (85%) were more likely than their peers to report that the first job they worked in after graduation did not meet their expectations.

Ensuring a smooth and successful transition from PSE to the labour market is a priority shared by government, institutions and students themselves. Differences between expectations and reality for new grads is not a surprise, but it matters that there are significant gaps associated with equity-deserving graduates. These findings reinforce that one size does not fit all when it comes to preparation for the labour market, emphasizing that postsecondary institutions would do well to explore options for targeting programs to support students from diverse groups, especially students who have historically been and continue to be marginalized.