Ontario’s Domestic Postsecondary Enrolment: Examining Recent Trends to Inform Policy and Planning was written by Sophie Lanthier, Alana Button and Amy Kaufman.
Domestic postsecondary enrolments in Ontario expected to grow by 45%, requiring an additional 225,000 seats by 2046.
Demand for domestic postsecondary education (PSE) spaces in Ontario is expected to grow by 45% over the next 24 years, requiring an additional 225,000 seats. These enrolment increases add to the pressures the sector is already facing: an ongoing tuition freeze, static operating grants, restrictions on international student enrolment, and a funding model that limits enrolment growth. The Ministry of Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security (MCURES) and PSE institutions are in a challenging position as they plan for these future enrolment increases and develop the fourth generation of Strategic Mandate Agreements.
Using data from MCURES and Statistics Canada, the Higher Education Quality Council of Ontario (HEQCO) analyzed Ontario PSE enrolment data from 2015 to 2022, identifying domestic enrolment trends to inform future planning for Ontario PSE institutions. HEQCO’s analysis found that students are increasingly older, diverse and women. University domestic enrolments increased across all credentials between 2015 and 2022. At colleges, overall domestic enrolment decreased, but decreases were concentrated in sub-baccalaureate programs. STEM program enrolments increased at both colleges and universities.
Addressing the decline in domestic college enrolments is especially crucial given the recent federal changes to international student policy, which severely impacts the financial sustainability of Ontario’s publicly assisted institutions, particularly colleges. The increase in STEM enrolments aligns with the Ontario government’s promotion of STEM disciplines and the expansion of the tech sector, however these programs are costly to launch and operate.
Ontario’s PSE participation rate is high, with students from all sociodemographic groups able to pursue high-quality PSE that leads to strong labour market outcomes for graduates. However, without planning and funding for the estimated 225,000 new domestic PSE seats required by 2046, students in Ontario may find themselves in a highly competitive environment, leaving them without access to their preferred programs.
HEQCO’s historical analysis suggests that increased enrolment demands will not be evenly distributed across credentials, programs or sectors. Strategic planning using trends like those found in HEQCO’s analysis will be crucial to managing the anticipated demands to Ontario’s PSE system in terms of both cost and capacity.